Analysis
Deep-dive intelligence on recession risk, energy markets, and supply-chain disruptions.
EnergyRecession RiskHigh
How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Feeds a Global Recession
A near-total shutdown of the world's most critical oil chokepoint has set off a cascade of price shocks. We trace the transmission from crude to consumer prices using measured elasticity coefficients.
2026-03-286 min read
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Supply ChainMedium
The Helium Shortage Nobody's Talking About
While the world focuses on oil, a parallel crisis is unfolding in helium markets — with direct implications for semiconductor manufacturing, MRI machines, and quantum computing research.
2026-03-255 min read
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Recession RiskElevated
Reading the Yield Curve: What 2026's Inversion Tells Us
The yield curve has predicted every US recession since 1955. We examine the Estrella-Mishkin model behind the NY Fed's probability estimates and what today's spread implies for the next 12 months.
2026-03-227 min read
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