Analysis
Deep-dive intelligence on recession risk, energy markets, and supply-chain disruptions.
The Industrial Cascade: How War, Tariffs, and Oil Are Rewriting the Global Map
Israeli strikes on Iranian steel, Trump's 50% tariffs, and $105 oil are creating a cascade that enriches US industrial producers while devastating global supply chains.
The Helium Crisis Nobody's Talking About
Iranian strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan knocked offline 30% of global semiconductor-grade helium. Chip fabs have 1-2 months of inventory.
Reading the Yield Curve: What the 2026 Un-Inversion Tells Us
The yield curve just un-inverted after the longest inversion in history. History says the un-inversion is the danger signal, not the inversion itself.
What the April Jobs Report Tells Us About Recession Risk
April employment data shows unemployment at 4.2%, pushing the Sahm Rule indicator to 0.37. Historical acceleration patterns suggest the trigger could cross 0.50 by June.
Fed Holds Steady: Why the April 2026 Rate Decision Matters for Recession Timing
The Fed held rates at 4.75% in April 2026, but the decision commentary signals mounting pressure for emergency cuts. The timing of those cuts will determine recession severity.
Every Oil Shock Since 1973: What History Tells Us About 2026
From 1973 Arab Embargo to 2022 Russia-Ukraine, each major oil shock tells a story. The 2026 shock has characteristics most similar to 1990.
Credit Spreads: The Bond Market's Recession Early Warning System
Credit spreads are widening as recession risk rises. History shows spreads explode to 900-2000 bps at recession onset. Current 420 bps is entering yellow zone.
21 Million Barrels Per Day: What a Hormuz Closure Means for Global Shipping
The Strait of Hormuz carries 21 million barrels per day. Japan, South Korea, India, and China depend critically on this chokepoint. A closure would spike oil to $200+.
Why Consumer Sentiment Is Crashing — And Why It Matters
Consumer sentiment has collapsed to multi-year lows. Sentiment-to-spending lag of 2-3 months suggests retail sales weakness ahead.
A Beginner's Guide to Reading Recession Indicators
What is a recession? How do economists know one is coming? A primer on recession indicators for investors and business leaders.
Steel and Aluminum in 2026: The Double Moat of Tariffs and Supply Destruction
Tariffs + supply destruction = 90% US steel utilization. LME aluminum through $3,200. Winners in metals, losers in autos and construction.