Real-Time Recession Intelligence
GeoWire tracks how geopolitical conflict cascades into economic risk — with live data from the Federal Reserve, calibrated academic models, and interactive supply chain analysis.
Powered by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) · 13 live indicators · Updated hourly
Models: NY Fed Probit · Sahm Rule · Hamilton NOPI · Credit Spreads · Philadelphia Fed Leading Index
See full methodology →Latest Intelligence
CriticalMar 31, 2026
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Elevates Energy Shock Risk
Naval tensions in the Persian Gulf have pushed WTI crude above $105, threatening to trigger the Hamilton oil-shock threshold that historically precedes recession within 12 months.
HighMar 28, 2026
Yield Curve Remains Inverted for 18th Consecutive Month
The 10Y-2Y spread sits at -42bps. The Estrella-Mishkin probit model assigns a 62% probability of recession within the next 12 months based on current spread levels.
HighMar 25, 2026
Sahm Rule Indicator Approaches Trigger Threshold
The 3-month moving average of unemployment has risen 0.38 percentage points above its 12-month minimum — within 0.12pp of Claudia Sahm's recession trigger at 0.50pp.
Recession Factors
NY Fed Probit
Low probability🟢
Sahm Rule
Not triggered🟢
Hamilton NOPI
Not triggered🟢
Philadelphia Fed Leading
Positive🟢
Credit Spread
Normal🟢
Composite Score
Low risk🟢
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