WTI Crude10Y-3M SpreadCredit SpreadJobless ClaimsConsumer Sent.UnemploymentRecession RiskWTI Crude10Y-3M SpreadCredit SpreadJobless ClaimsConsumer Sent.UnemploymentRecession Risk
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Recession Indicators

Live recession probability powered by 6 academic models and 13 Federal Reserve indicators.

Composite Recession Probability

low
Last updated: Apr 6, 2026, 02:35:43 AM UTC
Source: live

Model Outputs

Federal Reserve Indicators

All 13 FRED series powering GeoWire's recession models — updated live from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

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