Recession Probability
62%
12-month horizon
Oil Price Impact
+$18.40
above baseline
Supply Chain Stress
7.2 / 10
composite index
Market Sentiment
Fear
CNN Fear & Greed proxy
Latest Intelligence
CriticalMar 31, 2026
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Elevates Energy Shock Risk
Naval tensions in the Persian Gulf have pushed WTI crude above $105, threatening to trigger the Hamilton oil-shock threshold that historically precedes recession within 12 months.
HighMar 28, 2026
Yield Curve Remains Inverted for 18th Consecutive Month
The 10Y-2Y spread sits at -42bps. The Estrella-Mishkin probit model assigns a 62% probability of recession within the next 12 months based on current spread levels.
HighMar 25, 2026
Sahm Rule Indicator Approaches Trigger Threshold
The 3-month moving average of unemployment has risen 0.38 percentage points above its 12-month minimum — within 0.12pp of Claudia Sahm's recession trigger at 0.50pp.
Recession Factors
Yield Curve
Inverted🔴
Oil Shock
Elevated🟡
Consumer Sentiment
Deteriorating🔴
LEI
Declining🟡
Credit Spreads
Normal🟢
Sahm Rule
Not Triggered🟢