Real-Time Recession Intelligence
GeoWire tracks how geopolitical conflict cascades into economic risk — with live data from the Federal Reserve, calibrated academic models, and interactive supply chain analysis.
Global Supply Chain Disruption Monitor
Real-time tracking of oil, steel, aluminum, LNG, helium, and sulfur flows disrupted by the 2026 Iran conflict
Crisis Scenarios — What Happens Next?
Each scenario shows projected impact using Hamilton (2003) elasticity coefficients
Contained Disruption
Hormuz remains open. Insurance premiums elevated but manageable.
Partial Closure
Tankers reroute around Africa. 14-day delay adds $2–4/barrel shipping cost.
Full Hormuz Closure
Global oil shock. Japan, South Korea, India face acute supply crisis.
Diplomatic Resolution
Ceasefire and de-escalation. Risk premiums unwind. Markets rally.
What Changed Today
Latest Intelligence
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Elevates Energy Shock Risk
Naval tensions in the Persian Gulf have pushed WTI crude above $105, threatening to trigger the Hamilton oil-shock threshold that historically precedes recession within 12 months.
Yield Curve Remains Inverted for 18th Consecutive Month
The 10Y-2Y spread sits at -42bps. The Estrella-Mishkin probit model assigns a 62% probability of recession within the next 12 months based on current spread levels.
Sahm Rule Indicator Approaches Trigger Threshold
The 3-month moving average of unemployment has risen 0.38 percentage points above its 12-month minimum — within 0.12pp of Claudia Sahm's recession trigger at 0.50pp.