Recession Risk 42%
Direction RISING ↑
Confidence MEDIUM
Model 10-FACTOR
Updated —
UTC --:--:--
MARKETS
RECESSION INTELLIGENCE • 10-Factor Model · Updated Daily

Are We Heading Toward Recession?

GeoWire tracks how geopolitical shocks, energy crises, inflation, rates, labor, housing, and supply chains change recession probability — before consensus catches up.

See Recession Dashboard → Try Scenario Lab →

Recession Probability

Full Dashboard →
42%
12-Month Probability
↑ RISING
10-Factor Composite
0% — No risk50% — Elevated100% — Certain
Top Risk Drivers
Energy shock (oil +65% vs pre-war) HIGH
Supply chain disruption (Hormuz 3%) HIGH
Yield curve / 10Y Treasury 4.43% ELEVATED
Equities correction (S&P −12.2%) ELEVATED
Full 10-Factor Analysis →

What Changed Today

Full Log →

Loading updates…

Where Markets Disagree

See All Predictions →

Loading divergence data…

Scenario Outlook

Interactive Scenario Lab →

Current Shock: Operation Epic Fury

Day —

The geopolitical event driving current recession risk — energy shock, supply chain disruption, and investor uncertainty.

Conflict Timeline
Supply Chain Status
Hormuz Strait — Vessel Status
Loading vessel data…

Conflict Map

LIVE

Intelligence Feed

Loading intelligence feed…

War Cost Meter

US Impact →

Country Risk

All Countries →