Real-Time Recession Intelligence
GeoWire tracks how geopolitical conflict cascades into economic risk — with live data from the Federal Reserve, calibrated academic models, and interactive supply chain analysis.
Global Supply Chain Disruption Monitor
Real-time tracking of oil, steel, aluminum, LNG, helium, and sulfur flows disrupted by the 2026 Iran conflict
Crisis Scenarios — What Happens Next?
Each scenario shows projected impact using Hamilton (2003) elasticity coefficients
Contained Disruption
Hormuz remains open. Insurance premiums elevated but manageable.
Partial Closure
Tankers reroute around Africa. 14-day delay adds $2–4/barrel shipping cost.
Full Hormuz Closure
Global oil shock. Japan, South Korea, India face acute supply crisis.
Diplomatic Resolution
Ceasefire and de-escalation. Risk premiums unwind. Markets rally.
Projected ranges based on Hamilton (2003) oil price elasticity model
What Changed Today
Latest Intelligence
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Elevates Energy Shock Risk
Naval tensions in the Persian Gulf have pushed WTI crude above $105, threatening to trigger the Hamilton oil-shock threshold that historically precedes recession within 12 months.
Yield Curve Remains Inverted for 18th Consecutive Month
The 10Y-2Y spread sits at -42bps. The Estrella-Mishkin probit model assigns a 62% probability of recession within the next 12 months based on current spread levels.
Sahm Rule Indicator Approaches Trigger Threshold
The 3-month moving average of unemployment has risen 0.38 percentage points above its 12-month minimum — within 0.12pp of Claudia Sahm's recession trigger at 0.50pp.